Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.428600 2.584008 2.749209 2.938744 3.151260 3.383465 3.658126
2025-03-09 2.187742 2.396837 2.630649 2.914377 3.253444 3.651119 4.161381
2025-03-16 2.042290 2.282135 2.559834 2.910591 3.350138 3.894994 4.642791
2025-03-23 1.952836 2.217434 2.532689 2.944611 3.482690 4.184127 5.210850
2025-03-30 1.847271 2.121980 2.456192 2.904076 3.508063 4.327495 5.592676
2025-04-06 1.757562 2.038356 2.385980 2.861961 3.521835 4.449576 5.954653
2025-04-13 1.666732 1.947129 2.298923 2.788715 3.482740 4.487042 6.185190
2025-04-20 1.627121 1.918184 2.289527 2.817647 3.587500 4.745070 6.817295
2025-04-27 1.600722 1.904124 2.297743 2.869758 3.728477 5.073577 7.639650
2025-05-04 1.574845 1.888822 2.302490 2.915902 3.862990 5.407400 8.553282
2025-05-11 1.527356 1.842165 2.261335 2.891680 3.884403 5.551068 9.118132
2025-05-18 1.483234 1.798029 2.221219 2.865836 3.899914 5.684604 9.694411
2025-05-25 1.442048 1.756938 2.184331 2.843850 3.921966 5.837065 10.372225
2025-06-01 1.404258 1.719055 2.150222 2.823872 3.945402 5.995249 11.119202
2025-06-08 1.374102 1.690484 2.127956 2.820462 3.996129 6.212882 12.105704
2025-06-15 1.356288 1.678324 2.128645 2.852738 4.111558 6.578927 13.688635
2025-06-22 1.319854 1.638520 2.086922 2.814292 4.095989 6.665434 14.441679
2025-06-29 1.285115 1.600033 2.045664 2.774328 4.074271 6.735472 15.179047
2025-07-06 1.244253 1.551664 1.988044 2.704772 3.992375 6.660029 15.361871
2025-07-13 1.231124 1.542685 1.989118 2.732254 4.095813 7.026935 17.478675
2025-07-20 1.224240 1.542364 2.003048 2.781729 4.245958 7.535046 20.683209
2025-07-27 1.216146 1.539907 2.013433 2.825512 4.389076 8.058437 24.660999
2025-08-03 1.192512 1.513871 1.986278 2.802531 4.393687 8.216369 26.788858